Tuesday 7 August 2018

Manchester United Overrated

The main reason for placing this bet is that Manchester United was the most overperforming team in Premier League last season and the bookmakers and the odds market don't take this into account as much as they should.
Manchester United created 13.5 shots in total and 4.8 shots on target per 90 minutes last season which is closer to the league average (12.3 and 4.2) than the average of the four best performing teams (17.0 and 6.4). Manchester United also conceded 11.7 shots in total and 4.0 shots on target per 90 minutes which is closer to the league average (12.3 and 4.2) than the four best performing teams (8.2 and 2.7). Various models for Expected Goals also show that the statistics for Manchester United was indeed more like that of Crystal Palace and the league average than that of the top performing teams. [Experimental 361 e. g.]
However Manchester United conceded only 28 goals which is really crazy, it should have been more like 45. I find it very unlikely for a team and a goalkeeper to have two seasons like that in a row.

There's also a lot of negative buzz around the team in general and manager Jose Mourinho in particular, and that very seldom translates to great results on the pitch.

I invest in the following markets:

Date
Market
% of Bank
Bookmaker
Probability
Profit
BuyLatest
Premier League
7 Aug 18Finish Outside Top 4: Man United1.875%Betfair (SB)30.30%30.30%+0%

No comments:

Post a Comment