Forest Green Underrated

Forest Green had a rough year as newcomers in League Two last season, finishing in 21th place just 1 point clear of relegation. This time around it's to a large extent a new team defending the colors: Forest Green kept only 36% of the team from last season (minutes played last season). [Experimental 361]
Forest Green have made a really impressing start to the season in League Two when it comes to creating and conceding shots:

Looking at created and conceded shots on target so far Forest Green also performs way above the league average:

Forest Green is one of the few teams in League Two with a positive trend regarding creating and conceding shots as well as created and conceded shots on target. 

I think the bookmakers and the odds market still take into account the poor finishing position last season a bit too much and don't take into account the good statistics from the start of this season as much as they should.
I believe now is a good opportunity to bet on Forest Green finishing high in League Two this season; especially considering they play Macclesfield and Cambridge next, two teams that are performing below pair when it comes to created and conceded shots on target.

I invest in the following markets:

Date	Market	% of Bank	Bookmaker	Probability		Profit
				Buy	Latest
League Two
26 Sep 18	Top Half Finish: Forest Green	3.831%	BetVictor	71.43%	71.43%	+0%
26 Sep 18	Top 7 Finish: Forest Green	0.364%	Betfair (SB)	29.41%	29.41%	+0%
26 Sep 18	Promotion: Forest Green	0.120%	Betfair (SB)	14.29%	14.29%	+0%
26 Sep 18	Top 3 Finish: Forest Green	0.060%	BetVictor	11.11%	11.11%	+0%

Birmingham Underrated

Birmingham's performance and league table position don't add up - yet. They perform above average in Championship when it comes to creating and conceding shots, but still they sit in 20th place in the league table:

Looking at created and conceded shots on target so far Birmingham also performs above the league average, actually close to high flying Leeds:

After 8 games and 6 (!) draws where Birmingham should have walked away with a lot more points than 6 I think it's a really good opportunity to bet on Birmingham finishing in top half in Championship (and also a minor bet on finishing Top 6). If Birmingham can continue performing anywhere near where they've started out there is good value in both markets.

I invest in the following markets:

Date	Market	% of Bank	Bookmaker	Probability		Profit
				Buy	Latest
Championship
22 Sep 18	Top Half Finish 2018/19: Birmingham	3.375%	BetVictor	16.67%	16.67%	+0%
22 Sep 18	Top 6 Finish 2018/19: Birmingham	0.375%	BetVictor	5.88%	5.88%	+0%

Barnsley Underrated

Barnsley's performance so far this season is just extraordinary. They outperform every other team in League One when it comes to creating and conceding shots:

Looking at created and conceded shots on target so far Barnsley looks even more on a different level:

After the last two games where Barnsley picked up just 1 point but 'should' have walked away with at least 4 points I think it's a really good opportunity to bet on Barnsley winning League One and finishing Top 2. If Barnsley can continue performing anywhere near where they've started out there is good value in both markets.

I invest in the following markets:

Date	Market	% of Bank	Bookmaker	Probability		Profit
				Buy	Latest
League One
17 Sep 18	Winner: Barnsley	1.250%	Bet365	25.00%	25.00%	+0%
17 Sep 18	Top 2 Finish: Barnsley	1.875%	Bet365	45.45%	45.45%	+0%

Plausible Anomalies In League One

Considering the start of the season, I think the bookmakers and the odds market underestimate a couple of teams in League One. Southend (finishing 10th in League One last season), Accrington Stanley (promoted from League Two last season), Bristol Rovers (finishing 13th in League One last season) and AFC Wimbledon (finishing 18th in League One last season) have started this season in an interesting way, performing better than the league average when it comes to creating and conceding shots:

Southend's performance so far when it comes to creating and conceding shots on target is second only to Barnsley. Accrington Stanley and Bristol Rovers are performing very close to the league average when it comes to creating and conceding shots on target and AFC Wimbledon looks solid enough keeping conceded shots on target to a minimum:

I believe the bookmakers and the odds market still take into account last seasons finishing positions a bit too much and don't take into account the start of this season as much as they should.
Southend, currently 16th in League One, have a much better shot at finishing Top 6 than the probabilities the odds indicate (20%).
Accrington Stanley, currently 10th in League One, have a much better shot at finishing in Top Half than the probabilities the odds indicate (33%).
Bristol Rovers, currently 21th in League One, have a better shot at finishing in Top Half than the probabilities the odds indicate (40%).
AFC Wimbledon, currently 13th in League One, have a slightly better shot at finishing in Top Half than the probabilities the odds indicate (50%).

I invest in the following markets:

Date	Market	% of Bank	Bookmaker	Probability		Profit
				Buy	Latest
15 Sep 18	Top 6 Finish 2018/19: Southend	1.40625%	BetVictor	20.00%	20.00%	+0%
15 Sep 18	Promotion 2018/19: Southend	0.46875%	BetVictor	8.33%	8.33%	+0%
15 Sep 18	Top Half Finish 2018/19: Accrington	1.40625%	BetVictor	33.33%	33.33%	+0%
15 Sep 18	Top 6 Finish 2018/19: Accrington	0.46875%	BetVictor	7.69%	7.69%	+0%
15 Sep 18	Top Half Finish 2018/19: Bristol R	1.00%	BetVictor	40.00%	40.00%	+0%
15 Sep 18	Top 6 Finish 2018/19: Bristol R	0.25%	BetVictor	10.00%	10.00%	+0%
15 Sep 18	Top Half Finish 2018/19: Wimbledon	0.52083%	BetVictor	50.00%	50.00%	+0%
15 Sep 18	Top 6 Finish 2018/19: Wimbledon	0.10417%	Unibet	10.00%	10.00%	+0%