Additional bets: Tottenham

Basically the same analysis as in Tottenham Underrated - Yet Again but the odds keep crawling upwards at the Exchange markets and after the display agains Roma at the International Champions Cup I'm even more convinced Tottenham are underrated when it comes to finishing high in the Premier League. Lucas Moura's performance was brilliant and Erik Lamela is on the right track getting back to his best. Also, youngster Luke Amos did great at the defensive midfielder position and Fernando Llorente showed there might be a natural backup for Harry Kane in the team already this season.

I believe there's a good opportunity right now to place bets on Tottenham as Premier League winner; partly straight out as winners @19, partly as an Each Way bet @19/3 (1/3 2) at Betfair Sportsbook and also as straight out winners @21 (or 19.7 with standard commission) at Betfair Exchange as a trading strategy (laying bets at lower odds later on).

I invest in the following markets:

Date	Market	% of Bank	Bookmaker	Probability		Profit
				Buy	Latest
Premier League
27 Jul 18	PL Winner: Tottenham	0.625%	Betfair (SB)	5.26%	5.26%	+0%
	PL Winner: Tottenham (1/3 2)	0.625%		15.79%	15.79%	+0%
27 Jul 18	PL Winner: Tottenham [Trading]	2.50%	Betfair (Ex)	5.08%	5.08%	+0%

Tottenham Underrated - Yet Again

I would like to argue that Tottenham Hotspur is underrated by the odds market approaching the start of the English Premier League 2018/19. It's been the same the last couple of years, Tottenham is estimated by the bookies to finish 5th or 6th. In this very moment Tottenham has the fifth highest probability to win Premier League according to OddsPortal where the outright average odds for Spurs is 16.03.

The main reason for this would be the following:
 - Tottenham haven't made any new signings this summer
 - Tottenham never win any titles

Undoubtable true, but on the other hand:
 + Tottenham are always rather late signing new players, even so they are linked with a number of high quality players right now like young French international central defender Benjamin Pavard from Stuttgart, attacking whirlwind Wilfried Zaha from Crystal Palace, promising central midfielder Jack Grealish from Aston Villa and perhaps also central midfielder Wilmar Barrios from Boca Juniors.
 + Tottenham haven't lost any key player, although Toby Alderweireld looks set to depart (however: seven other Tottenham defenders played more minutes than him last season).
 + Tottenham also have a few players that didn't play much last season that could have almost the same impact as new signings. Brazilian winter signing Lucas Moura from PSG played only 208 minutes but will play an important part when it comes to unloading other key players. Argentinean Erik Lamela returned from a long term hip injurie, played 832 minutes and showed glimpses of his magic skills towards the end of the season. Looking at his career statistics per 90 minutes regarding total shots, shots inside penalty area, key passes and assists he's up there with the likes of Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sané. So great potential sneaking a bit under the radar!
 + In spite of being estimated by the bookies and odds market to finish 5th or 6th the last couple of seasons Tottenham have finished 3rd, 2nd and 3rd the last three seasons with an average of 7.3 points down to 5th place and and an average of 18.3 points down to 7th place. Looking even further Tottenham has been among the 4 best performing teams the last three seasons when it comes to creating shots on target per 90 minutes, avoiding shots on target per 90 minutes, expected goals for per 90 mintes and expected goals against per 90 minutes, on occasions even outsmarting the champions. [Objective Football, Experimental 361]
 + Tottenham have a new stadium likely to boost spirit and support.

In total I would say that Tottenham is underrated when it comes to the estimated finishing position in the league and there is value to be found in a number of bets, especially before any new signings are announced.

I invest in the following markets:

Date	Market	% of Bank	Bookmaker	Probability		Profit
				Buy	Latest
Premier League
25 Jul 18	Top 6 Finish: Tottenham	7.50%	Bet365	87.72%	87.72%	+0%
25 Jul 18	Top 4 Finish: Tottenham	3.75%	Betfair (Ex)	52.70%	52.70%	+0%
25 Jul 18	To Win Any Major Trophy: Tottenham	2.50%	BetVictor	30.77%	30.77%	+0%

Summing-up Season 17/18

This specific post is mainly for my own personal sake. The total ROI for the 25 bets placed during the season amounted to 199.80%.

There were a few exceptional opportunities for great value last season like Top Half Finish - 2017/18: Millwall. In mid September Millwall at position 16 and still considered relegation candidates lined up impressive performances but the results just didn't match up - yet.

Market	Bookmaker	% of Bank	Probability		Profit
			Buy	Latest
Premier League
Top 6 Finish: Tottenham	Betfair (SB)	3.33%	90.09%	100.00%	+11%
Not to Finish Top 4: Arsenal	Betfair (SB)	3.33%	65.36%	100.00%	+53%
Arsenal v Tottenham 2017/18: Tottenham	Betfair (Ex)	3.33%	61.35%	100.00%	+63%
Top 4 Finish: Tottenham	Betfair (SB)	10.00%	81.97%	100.00%	+22%
To Stay Up: Crystal Palace	Betfair (SB)	3.33%	47.62%	100.00%	+110%
Top London Club: Tottenham	BetVictor	6.67%	36.36%	100.00%	+175%
Bottom On Xmas Day: West Ham	BetVictor	1.67%	16.67%	0.00%	-100%
Bottom On Xmas Day: West Brom	BetVictor	1.67%	7.69%	0.00%	-100%
Top 10 Finish: Crystal Palace	Betfair (SB)	6.67%	34.84%	0.00%	-100%
Arsenal v Tottenham 2017/18: Tottenham	Betfair (Ex)	3.33%	90.91%	100.00%	+10%
Championship
Top Half Finish - 2017/18: Millwall	BetVictor	8.33%	20.00%	100.00%	+400%
Top 6 Finish - 2017/18: Millwall	BetVictor	1.67%	2.94%	0.00%	-100%
Relegation: Burton Albion	Unibet	5.00%	62.50%	100.00%	+60%
Winner 1-6: Cardiff	Unibet	5.00%	62.50%	100.00%	+60%
Promotion: Cardiff	Betfair (Ex)	3.33%	32.21%	100.00%	+210%
Top Goalscorer: Matt Smith	BetVictor	1.67%	1.96%	0.00%	-100%
To Stay Up: Hull	Betfair (Ex)	6.67%	88.64%	100.00%	+13%
League One
Promotion: Wigan	Unibet	3.33%	83.33%	100.00%	+20%
Top 6 Finish: Rotherham	Unibet	3.33%	45.45%	100.00%	+120%
Top 6 Finish: Rotherham	Unibet	6.67%	23.53%	100.00%	+325%
Promotion: Rotherham	BetVictor	1.67%	6.67%	100.00%	+1400%
League Two
Bottom 2 Finish - 2017/18: Forest Green	BetVictor	5.00%	25.00%	0.00%	-100%
Bottom 2 Finish - 2017/18: Forest Green	BetVictor	1.67%	25.00%	0.00%	-100%
Top 7 Finish 2017/18: Lincoln City	Betfair (SB)	1.67%	40.00%	100.00%	+150%
Promotion 2017/18: Lincoln City	Betfair (SB)	1.67%	13.33%	0.00%	-100%