Additional bets: Sheffield United

Basicly the same analysis as in Sheffield United Underrated but also adding some statistics from the start of this season, including games against top performing Middlesbrough and Swansea (where Sheffield United should have walked away with at least 2 point instead of 0):

Only 5 teams have created more shots per game than Sheffield United.
Sheffield United are among the 10 teams creating most shots on goal and is the team creating most shots inside the Penalty area.
Sheffield United are among the 4 teams creating most passes and most accurate short passes.
10 teams have allowed fewer shots againt than Sheffield United, the trend being positive.

I invest in the following markets (increasing the original investments by 50%):

Date	Market	% of Bank	Bookmaker	Probability		Profit
				Buy	Latest
30 Aug 18	Top Half Finish: Sheffield United	1.4375%	Unibet	71.43%	71.43%	+0%
30 Aug 18	Top 6 Finish: Sheffield United	0.625%	Bet365	26.67%	26.67%	+0%
30 Aug 18	Promotion: Sheffield United	0.125%	Bet365	14.29%	14.29%	+0%

Manchester United Overrated

The main reason for placing this bet is that Manchester United was the most overperforming team in Premier League last season and the bookmakers and the odds market don't take this into account as much as they should.
Manchester United created 13.5 shots in total and 4.8 shots on target per 90 minutes last season which is closer to the league average (12.3 and 4.2) than the average of the four best performing teams (17.0 and 6.4). Manchester United also conceded 11.7 shots in total and 4.0 shots on target per 90 minutes which is closer to the league average (12.3 and 4.2) than the four best performing teams (8.2 and 2.7). Various models for Expected Goals also show that the statistics for Manchester United was indeed more like that of Crystal Palace and the league average than that of the top performing teams. [Experimental 361 e. g.]
However Manchester United conceded only 28 goals which is really crazy, it should have been more like 45. I find it very unlikely for a team and a goalkeeper to have two seasons like that in a row.

There's also a lot of negative buzz around the team in general and manager Jose Mourinho in particular, and that very seldom translates to great results on the pitch.

I invest in the following markets:

Date	Market	% of Bank	Bookmaker	Probability		Profit
				Buy	Latest
Premier League
7 Aug 18	Finish Outside Top 4: Man United	1.875%	Betfair (SB)	30.30%	30.30%	+0%

Reading Overrated

Reading's season 2017/2018 was really lousy. Not only did they finish in 20th place just 3 points clear of relegation, but only relegated Burton produced less Expected Goals and only Bolton allowed more Expected Goals against than Reading did. [Experimental 361]

The squad is pretty much the same (85%) as last season BUT Reading looks set to loose central defender Liam Moore, by far the best player in Reading last season. He will not be involved in the opening fixture against Derby after handing in a transfer request at the end of last week. 

Transfers in for Reading this summer:
Sam Baldock, 29-year-old striker from Brighton, not very influential when Brighton earned promotion to Premier League 2016/2017 and even less so last season playing only 30 minutes.
Andy Yiadom, 26-year-old defender from Barnsley, enjoyed a decent season in spite of Barnsley being relegated to League One.
John O'Shea, 37 year-old defender from Sunderland, enjoyed a decent season in spite of Sunderland being relegated to League One.
David Meyler, 29 year-old defender/midfielder from Hull, performing below pair and playing second fiddle the last couple of seasons.
Marc McNulty, 25-year-old striker from Coventry, did score 23 goals in League Two last season but has never played higher than League One.

I can't really see any of the new defenders replacing Moore. Hull and Sunderland together with Burton had the most leaky defenses in Championship last season allowing less than 8 shots per goal conceded, Barnsley not doing that much better allowing less than 9 shots per goal conceded. [Experimental 361]

Strikers Baldock and McNulty may be strikers of som quality but Readings biggest problem alongside the leaky defense is the lack of chances created, not the lack of clinical strikers.

I invest in the following markets:

Date	Market	% of Bank	Bookmaker	Probability		Profit
				Buy	Latest
Championship
3 Aug 18	Bottom Half Finish: Reading	1.75%	Unibet	64.52%	64.52%	+0%
3 Aug 18	Relegation: Reading	0.50%	BetVictor	20.00%	20.00%	+0%
3 Aug 18	To Finish Bottom: Reading	0.25%	Unibet	5.26%	5.26%	+0%

Sheffield United Underrated

Sheffield United have kept the transfers to a minimum this summer, keeping almost 90% of the squad. The only player in or near the starting XI that has left the building is David Brooks who started 9 games last season. There are however a few but really interesting players joining:
Dean Anderson (loan), 21-year-old goalkeeper from Manchester United.
John Egan, 25-year-old central defender and one of Brentford's best performing player last season.
Kean Bryan (loan), 21-year-old defender/midfielder from Manchester City who spent last season on loan at Oldham in League One winning the club's Young Player of the Year award.
Ben Woodburn (loan), 18-year-old winger/attacker from Liverpool who captained the Reds in the UEFA Youth League and also played a few games for Wales at the 2018 World Cup qualifiers.
David McGoldrick, 30-year-old attacker with loads of Championship experience. Missed several months last season due to a groin injury. Has played the last four club friendlies and scored in the two most recent games against Inter and Doncaster.

Sheffield United's performance last season was really solid, finishing at position 10 after being promoted from League One. However, it could have been even better.

Sheffield United was not among the most offensive teams last season which might be natural as newcomers. But building on a successful season, keeping the offensive spine with Mark Duffy, John Fleck and Leon Clarke and also adding the quality of Woodburn and McGoldrick sounds very promising.

The overall defensive display from Sheffield United last season was superb, only champions Wolverhampton and Preston faced fewer shots. According to various models for Expected Goals Sheffield United should have conceded somewhere around 45 goals last season, but did in fact concede 55. [Experimental 361 e. g.]
Sheffield United had great trouble finding consistency between the sticks, alternating between Jamal Blackman and Simon Moore. Both of them performed under pair, partly due to injuries. Of the 37 goalkeepers playing 5 or more games in the Championship last season, Blackman and Moore are amongst the 11 goalkeepers with the lowest average rating at WhoScored.com.
Adding the quality of Egan, Bryan and Henderson will most certainly strengthen the defense even more. Especially Henderson who enjoyed a great loan spell at Shrewsbury last season. According to various models for Expected Goals Shrewsbury should have conceded somewhere around 58 goals last season, but did only concede 39. A splendid performance by the defensive line and Henderson in particular. [Experimental 361 e. g.]
Henderson was indeed selected for the League One PFA Team of the Year last season and was also called up by the England U20 and England U21 during that campaign.
Henderson has been given a number 1 shirt at Sheffield United and has played all six clubs friendless leading up to the Championship season underlining he is the first-choice goalkeeper.

I think the bookmakers and odds market underrate Sheffield United's chances of finishing high in the Championship table. Two things clouded the performance last season: somewhat lacking daring going forward and the under pair goalkeeping; Sheffield United have adressed both issues in a very interesting and comforting way.

I invest in the following markets:

Date	Market	% of Bank	Bookmaker	Probability		Profit
				Buy	Latest
Championship
2 Aug 18	Top Half Finish: Sheffield United	2.875%	BetVictor	52.38%	52.38%	+0%
2 Aug 18	Top 6 Finish: Sheffield United	1.25%	BetVictor	25.00%	25.00%	+0%
2 Aug 18	Promotion: Sheffield United	0.25%	BetVictor	11.11%	11.11%	+0%