Thursday 2 August 2018

Sheffield United Underrated

Sheffield United have kept the transfers to a minimum this summer, keeping almost 90% of the squad. The only player in or near the starting XI that has left the building is David Brooks who started 9 games last season. There are however a few but really interesting players joining:
Dean Anderson (loan), 21-year-old goalkeeper from Manchester United.
John Egan, 25-year-old central defender and one of Brentford's best performing player last season.
Kean Bryan (loan), 21-year-old defender/midfielder from Manchester City who spent last season on loan at Oldham in League One winning the club's Young Player of the Year award.
Ben Woodburn (loan), 18-year-old winger/attacker from Liverpool who captained the Reds in the UEFA Youth League and also played a few games for Wales at the 2018 World Cup qualifiers.
David McGoldrick, 30-year-old attacker with loads of Championship experience. Missed several months last season due to a groin injury. Has played the last four club friendlies and scored in the two most recent games against Inter and Doncaster.

Sheffield United's performance last season was really solid, finishing at position 10 after being promoted from League One. However, it could have been even better.

Sheffield United was not among the most offensive teams last season which might be natural as newcomers. But building on a successful season, keeping the offensive spine with Mark Duffy, John Fleck and Leon Clarke and also adding the quality of Woodburn and McGoldrick sounds very promising.

The overall defensive display from Sheffield United last season was superb, only champions Wolverhampton and Preston faced fewer shots. According to various models for Expected Goals Sheffield United should have conceded somewhere around 45 goals last season, but did in fact concede 55. [Experimental 361 e. g.]
Sheffield United had great trouble finding consistency between the sticks, alternating between Jamal Blackman and Simon Moore. Both of them performed under pair, partly due to injuries. Of the 37 goalkeepers playing 5 or more games in the Championship last season, Blackman and Moore are amongst the 11 goalkeepers with the lowest average rating at WhoScored.com.
Adding the quality of Egan, Bryan and Henderson will most certainly strengthen the defense even more. Especially Henderson who enjoyed a great loan spell at Shrewsbury last season. According to various models for Expected Goals Shrewsbury should have conceded somewhere around 58 goals last season, but did only concede 39. A splendid performance by the defensive line and Henderson in particular. [Experimental 361 e. g.]
Henderson was indeed selected for the League One PFA Team of the Year last season and was also called up by the England U20 and England U21 during that campaign.
Henderson has been given a number 1 shirt at Sheffield United and has played all six clubs friendless leading up to the Championship season underlining he is the first-choice goalkeeper.

I think the bookmakers and odds market underrate Sheffield United's chances of finishing high in the Championship table. Two things clouded the performance last season: somewhat lacking daring going forward and the under pair goalkeeping; Sheffield United have adressed both issues in a very interesting and comforting way.

I invest in the following markets:



Date
Market
% of Bank
Bookmaker
Probability
Profit
BuyLatest
Championship
2 Aug 18Top Half Finish: Sheffield United2.875%BetVictor52.38%52.38%+0%
2 Aug 18Top 6 Finish: Sheffield United1.25%BetVictor25.00%25.00%+0%
2 Aug 18Promotion: Sheffield United0.25%BetVictor11.11%11.11%+0%

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