Wednesday 25 July 2018

Tottenham Underrated - Yet Again

I would like to argue that Tottenham Hotspur is underrated by the odds market approaching the start of the English Premier League 2018/19. It's been the same the last couple of years, Tottenham is estimated by the bookies to finish 5th or 6th. In this very moment Tottenham has the fifth highest probability to win Premier League according to OddsPortal where the outright average odds for Spurs is 16.03.

The main reason for this would be the following:
 - Tottenham haven't made any new signings this summer
 - Tottenham never win any titles

Undoubtable true, but on the other hand:
 + Tottenham are always rather late signing new players, even so they are linked with a number of high quality players right now like young French international central defender Benjamin Pavard from Stuttgart, attacking whirlwind Wilfried Zaha from Crystal Palace, promising central midfielder Jack Grealish from Aston Villa and perhaps also central midfielder Wilmar Barrios from Boca Juniors.
 + Tottenham haven't lost any key player, although Toby Alderweireld looks set to depart (however: seven other Tottenham defenders played more minutes than him last season).
 + Tottenham also have a few players that didn't play much last season that could have almost the same impact as new signings. Brazilian winter signing Lucas Moura from PSG played only 208 minutes but will play an important part when it comes to unloading other key players. Argentinean Erik Lamela returned from a long term hip injurie, played 832 minutes and showed glimpses of his magic skills towards the end of the season. Looking at his career statistics per 90 minutes regarding total shots, shots inside penalty area, key passes and assists he's up there with the likes of Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sané. So great potential sneaking a bit under the radar!
 + In spite of being estimated by the bookies and odds market to finish 5th or 6th the last couple of seasons Tottenham have finished 3rd, 2nd and 3rd the last three seasons with an average of 7.3 points down to 5th place and and an average of 18.3 points down to 7th place. Looking even further Tottenham has been among the 4 best performing teams the last three seasons when it comes to creating shots on target per 90 minutes, avoiding shots on target per 90 minutes, expected goals for per 90 mintes and expected goals against per 90 minutes, on occasions even outsmarting the champions. [Objective Football, Experimental 361]
 + Tottenham have a new stadium likely to boost spirit and support.

In total I would say that Tottenham is underrated when it comes to the estimated finishing position in the league and there is value to be found in a number of bets, especially before any new signings are announced.

I invest in the following markets:

Date
Market
% of Bank
Bookmaker
Probability
Profit
BuyLatest
Premier League
25 Jul 18Top 6 Finish: Tottenham7.50%Bet36587.72%87.72%+0%
25 Jul 18Top 4 Finish: Tottenham3.75%Betfair (Ex)52.70%52.70%+0%
25 Jul 18To Win Any Major Trophy: Tottenham2.50%BetVictor30.77%30.77%+0%

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