Saturday 15 September 2018

Plausible Anomalies In League One

Considering the start of the season, I think the bookmakers and the odds market underestimate a couple of teams in League One. Southend (finishing 10th in League One last season), Accrington Stanley (promoted from League Two last season), Bristol Rovers (finishing 13th in League One last season) and AFC Wimbledon (finishing 18th in League One last season) have started this season in an interesting way, performing better than the league average when it comes to creating and conceding shots:


Southend's performance so far when it comes to creating and conceding shots on target is second only to Barnsley. Accrington Stanley and Bristol Rovers are performing very close to the league average when it comes to creating and conceding shots on target and AFC Wimbledon looks solid enough keeping conceded shots on target to a minimum:



I believe the bookmakers and the odds market still take into account last seasons finishing positions a bit too much and don't take into account the start of this season as much as they should.
Southend, currently 16th in League One, have a much better shot at finishing Top 6 than the probabilities the odds indicate (20%).
Accrington Stanley, currently 10th in League One, have a much better shot at finishing in Top Half than the probabilities the odds indicate (33%).
Bristol Rovers, currently 21th in League One, have a better shot at finishing in Top Half than the probabilities the odds indicate (40%).
AFC Wimbledon, currently 13th in League One, have a slightly better shot at finishing in Top Half than the probabilities the odds indicate (50%).

I invest in the following markets:



Date
Market
% of Bank
Bookmaker
Probability
Profit
BuyLatest
15 Sep 18Top 6 Finish 2018/19: Southend1.40625%BetVictor20.00%20.00%+0%
15 Sep 18Promotion 2018/19: Southend0.46875%BetVictor8.33%8.33%+0%
15 Sep 18Top Half Finish 2018/19: Accrington1.40625%BetVictor33.33%33.33%+0%
15 Sep 18Top 6 Finish 2018/19: Accrington0.46875%BetVictor7.69%7.69%+0%
15 Sep 18Top Half Finish 2018/19: Bristol R1.00%BetVictor40.00%40.00%+0%
15 Sep 18Top 6 Finish 2018/19: Bristol R0.25%BetVictor10.00%10.00%+0%
15 Sep 18Top Half Finish 2018/19: Wimbledon0.52083%BetVictor50.00%50.00%+0%
15 Sep 18Top 6 Finish 2018/19: Wimbledon0.10417%Unibet10.00%10.00%+0%

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