Wednesday 26 September 2018

Forest Green Underrated

Forest Green had a rough year as newcomers in League Two last season, finishing in 21th place just 1 point clear of relegation. This time around it's to a large extent a new team defending the colors: Forest Green kept only 36% of the team from last season (minutes played last season). [Experimental 361]
Forest Green have made a really impressing start to the season in League Two when it comes to creating and conceding shots:


Looking at created and conceded shots on target so far Forest Green also performs way above the league average:



Forest Green is one of the few teams in League Two with a positive trend regarding creating and conceding shots as well as created and conceded shots on target. 

I think the bookmakers and the odds market still take into account the poor finishing position last season a bit too much and don't take into account the good statistics from the start of this season as much as they should.
I believe now is a good opportunity to bet on Forest Green finishing high in League Two this season; especially considering they play Macclesfield and Cambridge next, two teams that are performing below pair when it comes to created and conceded shots on target.

I invest in the following markets:


Date
Market
% of Bank
Bookmaker
Probability
Profit
BuyLatest
League Two
26 Sep 18Top Half Finish: Forest Green3.831%BetVictor71.43%71.43%+0%
26 Sep 18Top 7 Finish: Forest Green0.364%Betfair (SB)29.41%29.41%+0%
26 Sep 18Promotion: Forest Green0.120%Betfair (SB)14.29%14.29%+0%
26 Sep 18Top 3 Finish: Forest Green0.060%BetVictor11.11%11.11%+0%

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